The Effects on Breeding Seabirds
Oil spills can affect breeding bird populations in a number of ways but the
most obvious are:

# Direct casualties i.e. birds being killed or disabled by being in direct
contact with the oil

# Populations can be affected by sub-lethal doses of oil, received either
by direct ingestion or by eating oil contaminated food, This can affect the
individuals ability to breed successfully by affecting the birds natural
responses. This apparently happened following the Exxon Valdez oil spill,
when it was reported that the timing of the breeding season was affected
in the case of colonies of Common Murres (Guillemots). However it can also
lead to nesting failure or reduced brood sizes.

# Populations can be affected by a reduction in the food supply, e.g. fish,
numbers being reduced as a result of mortality as part of the oil spill. This
fear was raised when a large kill of various fish species was discovered in
the Quendale Bay and Garths Ness area during the early days of the Braer
spill. Again food shortages could lead to nesting failure or reduced brood
sizes.

The two main groups of birds affected by the spill were locally resident
species (e.g. Shags, Tysties, Eiders, etc.) and winter visitors from the
north (e.g. Long-tailed Ducks, Great Northern Divers). There were also two
main groups of birds little affected by the spill. Firstly those species that
are largely summer visitors to Shetland (e.g. Guillemots, Razorbills, Puffins,
skuas, terns and Red-throated Divers); the bulk of the populations of
these species would have been out of Shetland waters at the time of the
spill. Secondly, there are Shetland resident species (e.g. Cormorants,
Gannets and Fulmars) which, as few casualties were reported for these
species, can be assumed to have either moved to other parts of Shetland,
probably as a reaction to the weather to gain a lee shore from the
prevailing south westerly gales, or perhaps offshore in the case of Fulmars
and Gannets.

In any review of Shetland's seabird populations the food shortage of the
1980's should be remembered. Between 1984 and 1989, sandeels (one of
the basic food fish for many of the seabirds in Shetland) became less
available, with the result that there was a significant reduction in the
breeding success especially amongst the smaller surface feeding seabirds.
Glasgow University Applied Ornithology Unit undertook a 3 year study of
the seabirds at Sumburgh (1990 to 1992) in response to this reduction in
breeding success and were funded for a further year to look at seabird
breeding success at Sumburgh in the wake of the Braer. These studies
concentrated on monitoring nests and radio tracking breeding adults to
ascertain chick feeding regimes. Their findings indicate that the 1993
season was successful for seabirds monitored at Sumburgh Head compared
with previous years.

Red-throated Diver
The 1993 breeding season was an early season, although the overall
number of successful pairs (that is, pairs which managed to rear any
chicks), was lower within the study areas than in 1992. Divers may raise
broods of either one or two chicks and the number that manage to rear
broods of two is one measure of the relative success of the season. The
ratio of one chick broods to two chick broods fell from 1:0.74 in 1992 to
1:0.65 in 1993. The poor breeding season was not evenly reflected
throughout the county however, both Hermaness and Foula held good
numbers of successful pairs with most other areas less successful,
especially the West Mainland and Yell.

Cormorant
Shetland's Cormorant colonies have been slowly declining since at least the
mid 1970's. However, there were 264 pairs in the colonies in 1993,
compared with 225 pairs in 1992 (all colonies surveyed). The mean brood
size across all colonies was 3.1 chicks/nest, which is slightly above
average and the same as in 1992.

Black Guillemot
After the Esso Bernicia oil spill at the Sullom Voe Terminal in December
1978, SOTEAG commissioned Oxford University to devise a method to
monitor changes in breeding numbers of Black Guillemot. This work resulted
in a bi-annual programme of surveys, alternately in Yell Sound where the
numbers were severely reduced by the Esso Bernicia spill, and at 12 further
sites around Shetland not directly affected by the spill. Thereafter, a
complete Shetland census of pre-breeding adults was carried out in the
springs of 1982-84. The plan for the spring of 1993 was to carry out a
census of the south Mainland coast of Shetland (within which there are
four control sites for Yell Sound), and survey the other monitoring sites
including Yell Sound and Fair Isle - twice. Despite poor weather in late
March and early April, the vast majority of this work was carried out.
Although the detailed results require careful interpretation, counts up to
1992 at monitoring sites suggested a general increase in numbers since the
early 1980's, especially on the west coast. For much of the coastline
however, the only comparisons that can be made are with the 1982-84
counts. Preliminary results of the spring 1993 counts have indicated that
the numbers of Black Guillemots on the south-east Mainland coast were
similar to the most recent counts, made in 1991/92. In the area of
Quendale Bay and the Fitfull Head cliffs immediately to the north of the
Braer, numbers were generally lower than in 1983 but there are anomalies.
Along the cliffs a kilometre each side of the wreck, 58 birds were counted
in 1983 compared with 96 in 1993, Further north along the coastline,
numbers at West Burra were reduced by 35% since 1992 and there may
also have been a decrease among the Scalloway Islands, although further
north still there was little change since the most recent counts in regularly
monitored sections, and considerable increases since the 1982-84 counts
on other coasts. Surveys on Fair Isle found a 25% decrease since the last
count of the whole island in 1989.
The conclusion is therefore that the Braer appears to have had little or no
effect on breeding numbers of Black Guillemots along the south-east
Mainland coast, although along the south-west coast (allowing for
probable decreases between 1982/83 and 1992), decreases between 1992
and 1993 in some areas (e.g. the Scalloway Islands) has probably been
greater than the 35% observed at the Burra monitoring sites, but probably
less elsewhere (e.g. counts of 77 at St. Ninian's Isle in 1983, and counts
of 75, 72 and 86 in 1993).

Shag
Breeding success studies began in March 1993 at Sumburgh Head and
quickly confirmed a decrease in numbers in this area. By the 21st April,
birds had reoccupied only 60% of the nest sites used in the 1992 study
plots, and were building nests or had laid eggs in 47% of these. After
experience gained during fieldwork for the Seabird Colony Register (SCR)
the overall monitoring strategy for Shags has been to count and map nests
and adults along entire stretches of coastline from an inflatable boat, with
land counts made only at colonies where a high proportion of nests could
be seen from the clifftop. In June 1993 these counts were repeated for as
much coastline as possible for which post-SCR counts existed. At
Sumburgh Head a count from the land revealed 151 nests compared with
304 in 1992 and 508 in 1988. No 1992 counts were available for the coast
of south-west Mainland (where smaller numbers breed), and while 1993
counts indicated considerable reductions (e.g. 9 nests at St. Ninian's Isle
compared with 38 in 1989), it is less clear exactly when the decreases
occurred. Further north along the west coast and along most of the east
coast, the 1993 counts indicated relatively small decreases in breeding
numbers that broadly correspond with the recent trend in a slow reduction
of breeding numbers. A survey of Fair Isle found 946 nests, only a 9%
decrease on the 1043 recorded in 1990.

There are three main Shag ringing sites at Sumburgh Head and the number
of pairs at these sites had dropped, with the largest drop on the West
Steps site. In the main ringing area there was only one nest (with eggs),
and it was the first time that chicks have not been ringed in this area
since it was first visited in 1978. The reduction in numbers was not even
throughout the colony with some areas worse hit than others. A small
colony north of Compass Head was reduced from c. 12 pairs to 3.
Compared to the average total of nests in the ringing sites during the last
four years, the 1993 total was only 61 %. However, numbers of shags in
these colonies have been falling for the last few years and the 1993 total
is 75.5% of the number of nests in 1992. The average brood size of chicks
at the age of ringing is given below for the Sumburgh colony since 1982.
Oil
0
2/3
3/4
1/2/3

Total
Mean
1991/92
51
1
29
95

176
Mean
1993
51
5
13
69

138
%
difference
0%
+370%
-56%
-27%

-22%
Section
1
2
3
4
Section
1
2
3(i)
3(ii)
4
Oil
0
2/3
3/4
3
1/2/3

Total
Mean
1991/92
646
351
279
.
808

2084
Mean
1993
319
427
180
18
329

1273
1991
508
.
.
28
804

1340
%
difference
1991
-37%
.
.
-36%
-59%

-50%
%
difference
1991/92
-51%
+22%
-35%
.
-59%

-40%
Section
1
2
3
4
Oil
0
2/3
3/4
1/2

Total
1991
773
.
155
402

1330
Mean
1991/92
720
638
158
391

1907
Mean
1993
719
489
72
435

1715
%
difference
1991
-7%
.
-54%
+8%

-8%
%
difference
1991/92
0
-23%
-55%
+11%

-10%
Section
1
2
3
4
Oil
0
2/3
3/4
1/2/3

Total
1991
246
.
224
306

776
Mean
1991/92
339
94
120
319

872
Mean
1993
226
75
86
306

693
%
difference
1991
-8%
.
-62%
0

-20%
%
difference
1991/92
-33%
-2-%
-28%
-4%

-20%
Section
1
2(i)
2(ii)
3(i)
3(ii)
4
Oil
0
2/3
2/3
3/4
3
1/2/3

Total
1991
361
.
121
55
21
404

962
Mean
1991/92
220
23
39
18
.
473

773
Mean
1993
267
41
88
15
12
342

765
%
difference
1991
-26%
.
-27%
-73%
-40%
-15%

-25%
%
difference
1991/92
+21%
+78%
+125%
-18%
.
-28%

-3%
Great Norther Diver
.
.
Shag
.
.
Eider
.
.
Long-tailed Duck
.
.
Black Guillemot
.
.
Total
QB
WS
.
QB
WS
.
QB
WS
.
QB
WS
.
QB
WS
.
QB
WS
02/01
8
.
.
420
.
.
142
.
.
290
.
.
35
.
.
895
.
23/01
4
3
.
0
114
.
12
20
.
25
64
.
0
1
.
41
202
26/01
2
1
.
0
130
.
9
14
.
18
45.
.
0
7
.
29
197
05/02
3
2
.
4
142
.
17
26
.
9
57
.
1
10
.
34
237
22/02
3
7
.
4
300
.
32
14
.
20
35
.
2
12
.
61
368
09/03
8
6
.
21
170
.
13
55
.
7
61
.
6
24
.
55
316
Dead
5
.
.
517
.
.
49
.
.
78
.
.
83
.
.
732
.
Year
Brood Size
82
2.3
83
2.0
84
2.2
85
2.0
86
2.3
87
2.1
88
2.4
89
2.1
90
2.1
91
2.2
92
2.1
93
2.0
Shag - The species most affected
by the spill - both in breeding &
wintering numbers.
Great Northern Diver - wintering
numbers declined around the
south Mainland following the spill.
Eider - Numbers declined by about
10% around the south Mainland
following the spill.
Black Guillemot (Tystie) - declined
by approximately 80% in the
vicinity of the spill.
Long-tailed Duck - declined by
around 20% in the Quendale Bay
area.
Kittiwake - breeding numbers
have been declining for several
years & it is unclear whether the
spill had any significant population
effects.
braer.net
M.V. Braer grounding and oil spill
Garth's Ness, Shetland, 5 Jan 1993
Origins of Ringed Seabirds
found dead.

A total of 39 ringed birds were
recovered as a result of the Braer
oil spill. Thirty-four were Shags,
fifteen from the nearby Sumburgh
colony, and while this was the
worst hit colony, birds from
colonies throughout Shetland,
(and as far away as Orkney),
suffered mortalities. The two main
groups of birds affected by the oil
spill were locally resident species
(e.g. Shags, Tysties, Eiders, etc.)
and winter visitors from the north
(e.g. Long-tailed Ducks, Great
Northern Divers). Of the local
resident species Shags have been
a target species for ringing effort
and this was reflected in the
numbers of ringed birds found.
None of the winter visitors found
dead were ringed e.g. Long-tailed
Ducks, Great Northern Divers,
etc., probably because very few
individuals of these species have
been ringed in their natal areas.

Shag
There were 15 birds recovered
that had been ringed at the colony
at Sumburgh, 11 from Fair Isle, 6
from Foula and singles from
Hermaness in Unst and Swona in
Orkney. This was 3.5% of the
Shags collected. All of the colonies
in Shetland where any significant
numbers of Shags have been
ringed are represented. It is not
surprising that the bulk of the
recoveries come from the
Sumburgh colony as this is by far
the closest to the site of the
wreck. However because a chick
was ringed in a colony it does not
necessarily mean that the bird will
return to that colony to breed, but
it is likely that a large proportion
of Shags will do so. Four birds
ringed as breeding adults (2 from
Sumburgh and singles from Foula
and Fair Isle), were recovered. It
was previously assumed that a
large proportion of breeding
Shags were sedentary, remaining
in the vicinity of their colony
throughout the year. If this had
been the case then the bulk of the
dead birds would have been from
the colony at Sumburgh which
would consequently have been
wiped out by the spill. In fact, the
recoveries show that there were
birds present from over a wide
area and that breeding adults
from other colonies were in the
area at the time of the spill. It is
possible that birds from remote
colonies such as Fair Isle and
Foula are inclined to move to the
Mainland during winter as the
outer isles will be particularly
exposed to severe weather
conditions.

Eider
A single ringed bird was
recovered during the spill. This
had been ringed as a breeding
female on Fair Isle in 1987.
Presumably Eiders move to the
more sheltered areas of Mainland
during the winter to avoid the
exposed coastlines of the outer
isles. If a significant number of
the casualties were established
breeders rather than juveniles,
recovery of the population could
be long term.

Black Guillemot
Two ringed birds were recovered
during the incident, one ringed
and recovered within the
Scalloway Islands, the other a
bird ringed as a chick on Isbister
Holm off Whalsay in 1982 and
recovered at Quendale. This was
quite a significant movement for a
Black Guillemot as most are very
sedentary and represents the
furthest movement of any Tystie
in the records of the Shetland
Ringing Group.

Kittiwake
A single bird was recovered,
having been originally ringed in
the Farne Islands in 1964. This is
the oldest Kittiwake recorded in
the British ringing scheme. Fairly
large numbers of Kittiwakes have
been ringed in some of the
Shetland colonies over the years
and the fact that none of these
locally ringed birds were found
amongst the 136 birds collected in
the incident would suggest that
many of the individuals involved
were not from Shetland colonies.
The Shetland Ringing Group has
no previous records of birds from
Shetland colonies being recovered
in the islands in winter. The only
recovery of a Kittiwake in
Shetland in winter was of a bird
from a colony in West Greenland.
Birds from Shetland colonies have
been recorded in the southern
North Sea and France during the
winter.
The Effects on Wintering and Breeding Seabirds
following the spill

The effects on Wintering Seabirds
From the 23rd January to the 9th March 1993 the RSPB coordinated winter
seabird surveys with assistance from SNH and SOTEAG, to assess the
immediate impact of the oil spill on the seabirds present in the affected
areas. Fortunately these counts could be compared with previous recent
surveys of the same areas carried out by SNH from February to March
1991, and from November 1991 to March 1992. The previous counts main
findings were:

# approximately 4% of the British wintering population of Great Northern
Diver (50% of the Shetland wintering population) winter in the south
Mainland *1 with the main concentrations between Wadbister Voe to
South Nesting Bay and from Skelda Voe to Whiteness Voe.

# approximately 2% of the British wintering population of Eider (25% of
the Shetland population) winter in the south Mainland with the main
concentrations between Gulberwick and Laxfirth, Mousa Sound and from
Skelda Voe to Kettla Ness. This species is particularly vulnerable as the
Shetland population has undergone considerable decline in recent years.

# approximately 4% of the British wintering population of Long-tailed Duck
(44% of the Shetland wintering population) winter in the south Mainland
with the main concentrations between Gulberwick and Laxfirth, Quendale
Bay, and from Skelda Voe to Kettla Ness.

# approximately 1% of the British wintering population of Shag and Black
Guillemot winter in the south mainland. The Shetland population of Shag is
steadily declining, while that of Black Guillemot is considered to be
increasing.

*1: from Skelda Ness south around to South Nesting Bay, hereafter regarded as south
Mainland.

Counts only took place in favourable weather conditions, with good
visibility, winds below force 4 and calm sea conditions. The coastline of
south Mainland (Skelda Ness to South Nesting Bay) was divided into four
main sections each of which was then divided into areas which could be
counted by one observer between the hours of 0900 to 1600 (Map 1). All
but one area were land based counts, the exception being the Scalloway
islands, which were counted by a combination of a fixed zodiac route and
land based counts from three of the islands. Section totals were derived
by adding together the area totals. If an area had multiple counts then a
mean count was taken, and each winter count was compared by
percentage differences. Sections counted were restricted mainly to the 'oil
affected' areas, i.e. 2,3 and 4, with one count from a 'non-oil affected'
area, i.e. section 1.

Map1. The southern half of Shetland showing the four count areas for
wintering seabirds, and the areas counted within each section.
The most important species, in both local and national terms, recorded in
previous surveys were Great Northern Diver, Shag, Eider, Long-tailed Duck
and Black Guillemot. Totals and percentage differences between this and
previous surveys of these five species in each section are given in each
species account. Counts in 1993 of Quendale Bay and the West Voe of
Sumburgh are given in Table 1.

The overall reduction in numbers from previous surveys in the south
Mainland was by approximately 20% (c.1,200 birds). Section 3, especially
around Quendale Bay, showed the largest apparent reduction in numbers
from previous survey data, approximately 60%. North of this, on the west
side of south Mainland (section 4) numbers were reduced by approximately
25% and on the east side (section 1) by approximately 18%. The only
slight increase in numbers was in section 2, approximately 1 %.

The following tables in the species accounts show totals and percentage
differences between species in each section surveyed. Oil in each area on
the 9th January 1993 (worst extent) was categorised as, no oil =0, streaks
of sheen = 1, light sheen =2, heavy sheen =3, and heavy oil =4.

Great Northern Diver
Numbers had declined by 38 birds (22%) from the 1991/92 count, which
represents approximately 13% of the Shetland wintering population (1% of
the British wintering population). Of the three main wintering areas,
numbers in section 1 remained stable whereas sections 3 and 4 showed an
apparent reduction in numbers of 56% and 27% respectively.
Shag
Numbers had declined by approximately 500 birds (1991 count) and 800
birds (1991/92 count) (50% and 40%). The only increase in numbers was
noted in section 2, with 22%. The other sections (1, 3 and 4) showed an
apparent reduction in numbers by 100 and 500 birds, in section 1 by 37%
and 50%, section 3 by 35% and section 4 by 59%. Within section 3, the
largest apparent reduction in numbers was in Quendale Bay (Table 1) and
within section 4, the largest apparent reduction in numbers was in
Whiteness Voe, off West Burra and in Clift Sound.
Eider
Numbers had declined by approximately 100 birds (1991 count) and 200
birds (1991/92 count) (8% and 10%) which represents approximately 2% of
the Shetland population. Numbers in sections 1 and 4 remained relatively
stable with apparent reductions in numbers of approximately 23% and 55%
in sections 2 and 3 respectively.
Long-tailed Duck
Numbers had declined by approximately 150 birds (20%) which represents
approximately 7% of the Shetland wintering population. Numbers in section
4 were similar to the 1991 and 1991/92 counts whereas the other sections
showed an apparent reduction in numbers by 30-150 birds. Quendale Bay
suffered the largest reduction in numbers.
Black Guillemot
The largest apparent reductions in numbers were within section 3, of up to
73% and section 4, of 15%-28%. Numbers in Quendale Bay declined by
83% after the Braer had grounded (Table 1) and within section 4 numbers
declined in Whiteness Voe, off West Burra and in Clift Sound by 60%,
although in the northern half of the Scalloway islands numbers increased by
approximately 30%.
Seabirds, especially Black Guillemot, are difficult to census during the
winter due mainly to variable light conditions and sea states, which greatly
affects the visibility of the birds to the observer. As there were few counts
carried out in each area within the sections over the past three winters,
there may be inaccuracies in the data presented here. Persistent strong
winds can cause movement of birds from exposed areas to more sheltered
coastlines and during each winter the weather was similar with strong to
gale force winds predominantly from a westerly direction.

The total number of birds counted in each section were very similar on the
1991 and 1991/92 surveys, suggesting that movements of birds in
response to weather are mainly local within each section. Therefore the
differences in the numbers found between 1993 and the previous two
surveys in sections 3 and 4 are considered to be mainly a result of birds
dying of oil contamination. Section 1 was surveyed as a control area and
showed no increase in total numbers to compensate for the reduced
numbers in sections 3 and 4. However in section 2 there was an increase,
mainly of Shags, suggesting a movement of birds possibly from section 3,
although numbers in section 2 did not decrease during February and March
when the storms abated and numbers increased around Sumburgh Head
and the West Voe of Sumburgh. The reduction in Shag numbers in section
1 may be attributable to birds moving into section 2 but some variation in
wintering numbers is perhaps to be expected.

Quendale Bay suffered the heaviest impact of the oil and the largest
reduction in seabird numbers with at least 732 birds found dead. It is
interesting to note that by the end of February small numbers of Black
Guillemot (2-6 birds) and Shag (4-21 birds) were seen back in Quendale
Bay although to the east of Scatness in the West Voe of Sumburgh the
situation was different with c.300 Shags and c.20 Black Guillemots present
(Table 1). This may have been due to little food being available in
Quendale Bay.

The reduction in Shag numbers in section 4 is mainly attributable to birds
dying of oil contamination and exhaustion as reflected by numbers found
dead or oiled on beaches in this section. This is also the case for Black
Guillemots although there may have been movement from the Trondra and
Burra area to the northern half of the Scalloway islands (less affected by
oil) where there was an increase of approximately 50 birds overall from
previous winter counts. The counts of the Trondra and Burra area on the
27th January 1993 and 9th February 1993 were of 56 and 50, respectively,
increasing to 131 by the 3rd March 1993 suggesting a movement of birds
back into the area.

Eider numbers only decreased markedly within section 3. The reduced
numbers in section 2 may have been due to birds not being recorded as
they could have moved to the north and east coast of Mousa where they
would not have been seen from the Mainland. The similar numbers of Eider
recorded within sections 1 and 4 in the three winters is reflected in the
small numbers found dead or oiled on beaches in these sections. This was
also the case for Long-tailed Duck. The reduced numbers in section 1 may
(as in Shag) have been affected by small local oil spills around the Lerwick
Harbour area during December 1992 although there was no direct evidence
for this. The number of Long-tailed Duck wintering in Shetland can
fluctuate between years and prior to the Braer grounding there was
evidence that the 1992/93 wintering numbers were relatively high
(M.Heubeck pers comm.), as reflected by the count in Quendale Bay on
the 2nd January (Table 1) and therefore the oil spill mortality may have
been greater than inferred from the species counts.

Table 1. Totals of Great Northem Diver, Shag, Eider, Long-tailed Duck and
Black Guillemot, before and after the Braer grounded, in Quendale Bay
(QB) and West Voe of Sumburgh (WS) from January to March 1993 with
totals of these species found dead between Quendale Bay and West Voe
of Sumburgh (mostly in Quendale Bay) up to the end of January 1993.
Although there was an obvious reduction in breeding numbers, the average
brood size was only slightly lower than the last few years, and the chick
growth curve (wing lengths x weights) of the measured shag chicks in
1993 was better than that for 1991.

Guillemot and Razorbill
The colonies at Sumburgh and Compass Heads had a very successful
season, although the season was over a week earlier than usual. Visits to
these colonies were made in late June and early July and by this time
many of the chicks were large and in the process of fledging. Undoubtedly
many of the chicks had fledged by the time of the visits.
There were large
numbers of display fish discarded in the Guillemot colonies, noticeably more
than in previous years, largely sandeels of a wide range of sizes, and the
chick growth curves for both species (wing lengths x weights) of the
measured chicks in 1993 was better than that for 1992.

Puffin
Puffin chick survival was investigated at Sumburgh Head and Hermaness,
Unst. From the beginning of July. 26 chicks at Sumburgh Head and 27
chicks at Hermaness were examined at approximately seven day intervals
until the last chick had left its burrow. The percentage of the sample of
chicks which survived to fledging (chick survival) at Sumburgh Head was
100%, a continued increase since 1990 when monitoring began, chick
survival in 1990 being 56%. In contrast, at Hermaness, chick survival
decreased from 87% in 1992 to 78%, although this was still an increase on
1990 and 1991 when 56% and 67% respectively, of chicks survived to
fledging. The reasons for this decrease in 1993 are not clear but may have
included increased predation by Great Skuas and rats and a shortage of
sandeels. All monitored chicks at Sumburgh Head fledged before the 2
August and at Hermaness before the 10 August.

Arctic Tern
Numbers (counted in the first week of June) at 53 colonies declined
slightly from 4305 adults in 1992 to 4242 in 1993 (-1.5%). The mean
clutch size per pair increased from 2.14 in 1992 to 2.42 with a c.60%
hatching success and productivity, (expressed as young fledged per
Apparently Incubating Adult (AIA)) decreased from 0.65 in 1992 to 0.42,
Large numbers of chicks of all ages were found either in a weak state or
dead from the end of June onwards, reflecting both the adverse weather
conditions and the acute food shortage from the first week of July. As in
1992, Mousa suffered heavy predation from otter/s and several other
colonies by predation from Great Skuas, notably at Noss

Arctic Skua
Numbers at eleven monitored colonies decreased from 194 Apparently
Occupied Territories (AOTS) in 1992 to 171 AOTs (-12%), all but two
(which showed no change) decreased by 4% - 23%. The mean clutch size
(1.85) and hatching success (78%) were slightly lower than in 1992.
Productivity (expressed as young fledged per AOT) was 1.08, very similar
to 1992, with a slight decreases on Yell, Fetlar and Noss due to predation
from Great Skuas and Great Black-backed Gulls.

Great Skua
Numbers at eight monitored colonies increased slightly from 258 AOTs in
1992 to 267 AOTs (+3%). The numbers at Noss Hill (36 AOTs in 1993)
continued to increase, with a 20% increase from 1992. The mean clutch
size increased slightly from 1.79 in 1992 to 1.87, the slight increase as a
result of the success on Noss and Noss Hill. Hatching success (76%) was
similar to 1992. Productivity increased from 0.68 young fledged per AOT in
1992 to 0.82, the increase being noted on Noss, Mousa and Mainland
where very little cannibalism was noted, although post-fledging
cannibalism by adults was noted at Hermaness, Lambhoga and Noss.

Kittiwake
The Shetland Kittiwake population has declined markedly in recent years,
but at greatly varying rates at different colonies or regions. In 1993,
counts of nests and adults were made at all colonies except those on
Foula, Noss, north-west Mainland and Unst. Apart from increases at some
of the smaller colonies on Fetlar, Yell and Out Skerries, the recent
decreases had continued, in some (but not all) areas at greater rates than
recorded recently. At colonies in the southern half of Shetland (from
Watsness in the west to Mousa in the east), totals of 3693 nests were
recorded in 1993, 4917 in 1991 and 8905 in 1981. Because of the
considerable recent changes at colonies it is difficult to know how much
the reductions in 1993 were attributable to the Braer or simply reflected a
continuing downward trend.

Eider
Surveys of flocks of moulting Eiders suggest that after a considerable
decline from an estimated 16,500+ birds in 1977, the Shetland population
(assumed to be largely resident) had stabilised by 1991/92 at c.7,200,
again based on surveys of moulting flocks which located 6544 birds. In
January 1993 most of the 122 oiled Eiders were found in the Sumburgh
area with later counts of moulting birds about 450 lower than in 1992. The
proportion of the total population moulting in each area varies from year to
year but it is interesting to note that further north on the oil-affected
coast of south-west Mainland (where few oiled Eiders were found),
moulting numbers were actually higher in 1993 (636) than in 1992 (529). It
is likely therefore that the impact of the Braer on Shetland's Eider
population was relatively small and that had the oil spill not occurred,
numbers may have increased slightly between 1992 and 1993.

In general, the 1993 breeding season was successful for most species that
may have been affected by the Braer. The exceptions however, were
Shags whose breeding numbers were significantly reduced at Sumburgh
and to a lesser degree at other south Mainland colonies, and Black
Guillemots with numbers along the south-west Mainland coast reduced by
30-40%, although few appear to have been affected along the south-east
Mainland coast.

There was little evidence that other species suffered from food shortages
or a reduction in breeding numbers as a result of the Braer. Brood sizes
and chick growth were good in species such as Guillemot, Razorbill, Tystie,
Cormorant and Shag and although Arctic Terns and to some extent
Kittiwakes had some mortality amongst chicks late in the season, this
occurred in many colonies away from the area contaminated by the Braer
spill and was presumably due to difficulties in obtaining sandeels, as
happened throughout much of the 1980's. Red-throated Divers had a poor
year but most of these breed and feed outside the area likely to be
directly affected by the Braer.
Handbook on Oil Impact
Assessment - Seabirds

As part of an EU project
(2006-2007) a Handbook for
Impact Assessment is being
developed. A scientific workshop
has been held in La Coruņa, Spain
in September 2006, where
scientists from all across Europe
discussed the contents of the
Handbook and identified the main
issues with regards to the
integration of Impact Assessment
into oiled wildlife response and
the wider oil spill response.

The main conclusions from the
workshop were:

* Where possible, the impact of
an oil spill incident on seabirds
should be prevented where
possible, by using ideally pre-spill
prepared information on the
seasonal distribution of vulnerable
species and consulting scientists
in the planning of response
operations

* Impact Assessment should be
an integrated part of oil spill
response planning

* There is a need for an
internationally developed manual,
protocol or set of guidelines that
could be used to design an
adequate, standardized system of
data collection and analysis as an
integrated part of oil spill
response so that a reliable
assessment of impact on wildlife
populations can be made.


Handbook on Oil Impact
Assessment
4.0 SPILL RESPONSE
4.1 Assessing the damage

Introduction
The four basic questions to be
answered by an impact
assessment are (i) what has been
killed, (ii) how many, (iii) where
did they come from, (iv) can any
effect be detected at the
population level? Demonstrating
any effect on seabird populations
of even a major oil spill has not
been easy, and few case studies
have been able to do so
convincingly. Firstly, the different
species affected must be
identified and the mortality
quantified. This normally involves
searches of the polluted coastline
for oiled victims (beached bird
surveys), and these surveys are
most effective if they are planned
and directed, in co-operation with
the teams responsible for cleaning
up the oil.

Not all birds that become oiled will
be found on even the most
thorough beached bird surveys,
and this proportion will vary
depending on factors such as the
distance from shore of the point
source of the spill, the nature of
the coastline, the type and
volume of oil, and prevailing
winds. A drift experiment, where
real or simulated seabird
carcasses are marked and
dropped in the vicinity of slicks, to
be later recovered on beached
bird surveys, can help estimate
the proportion of the total
mortality that was actually found.
This is best planned for in
advance, and conducted during
the early stages of an incident.

For many seabird species the only
data on population sizes and
trends comes from counts at the
breeding colonies, but most
seabirds are migratory, or at least
spend much of the year well away
from their breeding sites, whereas
most oil spills occur during winter
months. A small proportion of
seabirds have been ringed
(banded) at their colonies, which
may indicate breeding origins, but
for most species this percentage
is either extremely small or
heavily biased towards particular
well-studied locations.

Fortunately, widespread seabird
species normally vary in size over
their breeding range and careful
measurements (biometrics) can
help indicate likely breeding
origins, and where best to look for
population impacts. Seabirds also
have a period of immaturity
lasting several years before
attaining breeding age, with the
different age classes having
different natural survival rates,
and often different winter
distributions. It is therefore
important to established the age
structure of the mortality for each
species, since their populations
are most likely to be impacted if
the victims are mostly breeding
adults (with normally high winter
survival), rather than birds in
their first winter, many of which
would have died naturally before
the following summer. Finally, it is
important to establish the sex
ratio of the mortality since male
and female seabirds can have
different wintering distributions,
and an incident could kill adult
birds of either sex
disproportionately.

These key elements of a wildlife
response for impact assessment
are generic to any incident:
organised beached bird surveys,
a drift experiment where feasible,
and the recording and
examination of the dead birds
collected. This needs close
co-operation with those involved
in the rehabilitation response for
live birds, and with the authorities
in charge of the overall response.
Being prepared should also
involve collating data on the
numbers and distribution of the
wildlife resources at risk in your
area. This will not only help guide
the overall response, but may
itself be part of the impact
assessment for species such as
arctic waterfowl whose breeding
origins, numbers and densities
are poorly known, and for which
counts in winters following the
spill may be the best means of
detecting any population effect.

This manual provides guidance for
wildlife responders during an oil
spill, and introduces standard
protocols and methodology that
aid the impact assessment and
help provide comparisons
between different incidents.

Click the link to access the digital
handbook
http://www.oiledwildlife.eu/drupal
-4.7.3/?q=node/243